Epi-Based Forecast: Estimate Value of a New Product Launch

A mid size pharmaceutical company intended to launch a product in Dermatitis treatment market and hence, aimed to develop a long-term forecast.
Clients needed a global forecast with a focus on 5 major markets.
The product was expected to bring a shift in treatment landscape.
We supported the client by generating & developing a forecast model which was inclusive & designed to account the future patient dynamism.

Develop a long-range annual forecast estimating potential target patient pool and revenue for the product
To estimate peak patient share of the product
Depict $ value of each of the 5 major markets in scope and RoW segment
Run sensitivity on key variables showing significant impact on overall revenue of the product

Market understanding:

Initially, an as-is market assessment that included epidemiology & buying process analysis was carried out
Patient-based forecast model development:

Formulated an approach using epi-based forecast methodology in an excel based model

Prevalence, incidence and treatment rates were utilized to estimate target patient pool

Peak share estimates were based on primary research findings from physician and patient willingness survey

Using various bass-diffusion curves and the existing curve uptake library, the best-fit curve uptake to peak patient share was used
Reporting:

Forecast results were measured and reported as a function of patients & revenues

Client was able to estimate the product’s usage & penetration across the forecast period as a measure of the patient numbers
Forecast resulted from the patient based forecast model was more robust and comprehensive

Client was able to view and analyze forecast results by patients, standard-units and revenues (in Local Currency)
Forecast tool was easy to roll-out to affiliate countries and teams