Client Situation
- Client was planning to launch a new formulation (SC) of already approved RA biologic (IV formulation) that was available in the market for over 5 years with:
Long term safety data
Physical familiarity with molecule
- There were few challenges such as the difficulty in assessing potential cannibalization, highly competitive marketspace, complexity in forecasting by Payers.
- Client reached out to Digtinctive to provide a framework for forecast modelling and estimating potential value of new formulation.
Objective
Develop an in-depth RA market forecast assessing the following:
Market growth
Peak product demand
Patient vs. TRx update
Cannibalization assessment
Sensitivity analysis
Branded competition
Approach/Solution
A unified analytics framework was developed to address client needs, which included:
- Forecasting Triangulation:
Patient-based forecast (based on patient claims data) model, focusing on:
New Patient Starts & Switches
Future market events impact
Days on Therapy / Compliance
TRx/NRx forecast (based on IQVIA NPA data), providing key insights on physician behavior and closely linked to ex-factory output
- Ad-hoc Analyses to Support Forecast
Historical analog analysis
Attribute analysis for pipeline products
Promotional spending analysis
SOV analysis
Price sensitivity analysis
Impact
- Client was able to gauge future potential of the new indication launch
- The model further provided insights into new to market vs. switch patients, to further help in promotional messaging and targeting
- TRx forecast provided insights into physician adoption trend to support target and segmentation revisions
