Client Situation
- A leading global research-driven pharmaceutical company wanted to optimize its product portfolio in their country.
- To achieve this, the company saw the need to evaluate the progression of individual products in their country and develop top-line forecast for a pre-defined set of products.
- Digtinctive supported the client by generating & developing a forecast model that considered the potential events and patient dynamics.
Objective
- Develop a top-line yearly forecast for existing number of products across various therapeutic areas
- Identify, evaluate and apply the probable events that can potentially impact the product’s usage
Approach/Solution
- Top-line market understanding:
Understanding market dynamics for each therapeutic area keeping in view the target products
- Forecast model development:
Forecasting assumptions were defined and validated with the client leadership
Conducted analogue analysis to validate the trends
In-house time-series model for base-line product was developed (excel based model)
Events were applied on the base-line patient shares of products to arrive at forecast results
- Forecast Reporting:
Forecast consolidation by therapy areas, with focus on base, high and low scenarios
Developed reports to share the forecasting results as patient numbers, revenue and units
Impact
The client was able to estimate the future potential of entire portfolio of products and further deep dive into each product
The forecast results were used for budget allocation for promotional activities and other post launch tasks
